The Daily recap of Shane’s Auction Picks, the 8th of December and my Liquid Domain Theory.
Ok so here’s my Theory on domain liquidity and valuation, I posted the essence of this on namepros the other day. It’s more of a working hypothesis than a theory, as I haven’t explored in completely. It makes sense in my head anyway.
When talking about liquid domains, speculative domains and this whole arena that we find ourselves in, we need to define the fundamentals. I believe these fundamentals have been defined as short, pattern and meaning, not in any particular order.
We all know that we’re navigating uncharted waters. We don’t have omnipotence but we can use our brains and see what’s been working and trending to understand these fundamentals. Let’s take 4 character .COM’s for our example. We’ve watched every CCC.com increase in value and none have been available for years. Obviously LLLL NNNN .coms are time tested and great.
So it stands to reason that any CCCC.com has some kind of value, because it meets at least one of our fundamentals, short. Pattern and meaning are bonuses that increase the value of the CCCC.com.
I actually think that within the liquid market you can assign value to anything that meets the requirements. However the value may not always be above reg fee. So for example random LNLL.com may only be worth $4 right now.
We can then apply this theory of liquidity to other extensions using their current percent of the .com value. Say for example the floor for 6n com’s is $25, 5-10% of that puts the worst 6n net at $1.25 to $2.50. We can calculate the value of any other 6n.net based on the fundamentals and the prices set by the com’s. Since the “short” is constant in this example, it falls to pattern and meaning to increase the value above the floor.
If this theory is indeed accurate, we can make purchases based on trends, and availability as the value of the name approached Reg fee. This isn’t always the case as the best deal might be buying when the current value of the domain is at 50% of Reg fee, wait too long and the price jumps. Then there are things to consider like, commission, other sales costs, and back-order prices. Is the asset worth buying when it’s value reaches the registration fee? or when it gets to the lowest possible backorder price?
This whole line of thinking only applies to liquid wholesale pricing and not end user sales, and just as we shouldn’t determine the wholesale value based on random end user sales, we can’t place the floor of the asset based on BIN undervalued sales. Pricing mistakes are made everyday. Just because someone mistakenly puts the price of a 4L chip at $900 doesn’t mean that’s the new floor, it simply means that someone got lucky and found an undervalued deal.
So I think a great point to take away from this, if you determine it’s not all BS, is that when looking at any liquid domain string to speculate on, you can assign a value based on data and research. The key is to find the strings or individual domains that are just under Reg value and are trending up, or better yet the ones that were missed and have above reg or above backorder value. This concept can cross strings and niches based on any of the fundamentals. If we focus on 5l.com’s that have absolutely no meaning or pattern and ignore 6L with pattern and meaning, I think we’re missing out and becoming myopic to the value contained within the fundamentals.
Look at numerics, sure 5n.com’s are great, but there are now 6n.net’s trading way over the floor of the 5n.com’s. At some point the short gives way to pattern and meaning. It’s something to consider when buying up all the crap in one string of names.
BFBB.net Start the day off with one of the better dot nets you can buy. The theme is patterns, they rule the market right now
Current Price is $282, Lots of B’s or Business
HPQR.com Officially a CHiP but one of those names we would have all passed on a year ago. Now its worth $2Kish
1,901 USD, $1900 ish,
CZFF.com Same here. FF is the driver. Financial Freedom, or Furry Friend. As for Z, all I ever have is Zebra
$1,951 (25 Bids) Thought this would get more
06090.com The pattern is pretty, even with the zeros
$1,075 (57 Bids) Zero’s look good to me, I bet this name was picked up for $19 a year ago.
555170.com Triple 5 is the driver. Just not driving very hard, under $100
265 USD, not a bad final price, not sure where the 6n’s are going. I don’t think the 0 affects this one as much in the Future.
08189.com The zero at the front brings the price down but if it were anything other than a zero or four it would be $5K plus
$1,100 (27 Bids)
BHGGG.com Triple 5L.com are one of the patterns that are hitting the aftermarket. And that’s how it starts
$115 (20 Bids) I need to do more 5L research, this seems like it would get a higher price.
BBQO.com I think this works for both markets. Chinese are starting to buy the vowels and American keeps eating the BBQ
$313 (16 Bids) This price seems like a good deal for delicious BBQ Ostrich, I’d pay that.
OCWeed.com Pretty sure they’re selling weed in Orange County. One bid
$48 (2 bids), I was the second bid… Make me an offer.
DMMZZ.com At $12 but pretty sure it won’t stay there
$82 (12 Bids)
EGBF.com Western Premium. Over under $410. I added the $10 for dramatics.
787 USD, I like to see these types rising. I have a few.
SCPW.com Domain Holdings is selling. Or at least trying to sell. All depends on their reserve
Inbred.com Tourism site for West Virginia
$2151, not quite sure how you monetize this one, or what the build is. I can almost see a reality show on the discovery channel.
Interview.net When the seller tells you its one of his favorite names you are pretty much guaranteed the reserve is going to be high
FOR OTHER GREAT NAMES FOR SALE MAKE SURE TO VISIT CAX.COM
|Domain Name / TLD / Status||Bidders||Time Left||High Bid|
|1495.net||Bidders:41||Time Left:3h 16m||High Bid:$463|
|1373.net||Bidders:49||Time Left:3h 20m||High Bid:$1,600|
|ll4.com||Bidders:46||Time Left:3h 44m||High Bid:$1,500|
|ooon.com||Bidders:105||Time Left:3h 47m||High Bid:$2,900|
|buyshares.com||Bidders:111||Time Left:4h 2m||High Bid:$10,000|
|2360.com||Bidders:148||Time Left:4h 3m||High Bid:$23,100|
|xzx.net||Bidders:91||Time Left:4h 4m||High Bid:$1,310|
|11inches.com||Bidders:8||Time Left:4h 8m||High Bid:$88|
|trm.com||Bidders:170||Time Left:4h 28m||High Bid:$55,501|
|dfmg.com||Bidders:91||Time Left:4h 29m||High Bid:$2,110|
|guncraft.com||Bidders:47||Time Left:4h 38m||High Bid:$252|
|filmer.com||Bidders:93||Time Left:4h 44m||High Bid:$2,400|
|momentofsilence.com||Bidders:29||Time Left:5h 0m||High Bid:$70|
|canan.com||Bidders:136||Time Left:5h 3m||High Bid:$1,800|
|ipj.net||Bidders:72||Time Left:1d 3h||High Bid:$540|
|1565.net||Bidders:48||Time Left:1d 5h||High Bid:$81|
|tiii.com||Bidders:116||Time Left:1d 5h||High Bid:$1,105|
|06090.com||$1,075 (57 Bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|08189.com||$1,100 (27 Bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|CZFF.com||$1,951 (25 Bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|BHGGG.com||$115 (20 Bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|BBQO.com||$313 (16 Bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|OCWeed.com||$48 (2 bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|DMMZZ.com||$82 (12 Bids)||12/07/15||GoDaddy|
|88737.com||3 days to go||12/07/15||GoDaddy|