You’re Not Flying, You’re Falling Gracefully

Jun 24 2011

That’s my feeling about a lot of things lately.  In a online world where people are celebrating what they deem to be success I think the reality is they are falling.  They’re just falling gracefully.

1. Groupon: I don’t care how much revenue the company makes, it’s not making money.  When you sell 5 million dollars worth of heavily discounted tire rotations it doesn’t mean Groupon is making money.  I can guarantee the company giving away the merchandise isn’t making any,  and at the burn rate of Groupon , it doesn’t seem like they are either. I do believe the first in has a huge advantage but the competition is growing daily and the margins will continue to dip.  This company is severely overvalued and I can’t wait until they have puts on this stock.  I just hope the stock stays above ten dollars before the puts are released.

2. InternetTraffic:  Great.  Everyone is making a lot more money than they were.  It still sucks compared to the “old days”.  It’s better than it was, which is better than nothing. I realize there are still people making great money parking but there are just as many that aren’t even covering renewal cost.  If parking was so great there would be absolutely no need to sell any names and yet everyone is. Schilling makes millions parking,  a few others make hundreds of thousands, most of the rest,  peanuts.  IT is the best of what’s left. Internet Traffic sounds like it’s flying but in reality it’s a dead cat bounce.

3. WannaDevelop.com How does Mike afford to keep this going?  They seemed great a few years ago but their time has come and gone. Nobody is making any money with these things.   If they made in any money why wouldn’t he just keep them to himself?  He could do thousands of them and rake in the cash. It’s like the guy selling his football picks.  If they were so good why doesn’t he just go and bet everything he has and forget everyone else? Not flying, not buying

4. 3D Anything The hot buzz of the last few years has been 3d.  I said it before and I’ll repeat it, 3D is a gimmick that runs its course every 10 years.  It’s great temporarily and then people get sick of it.  Clarity and definition?  It’s here to stay with high definition. That depth and clarity of picture continues to grow but there are limits to how “deep” people want to watch on a consistent basis.   People like depth,  but 3D is uncomfortable to watch all the time.  There is still money to be made in 3D names but only the really good ones and the obscure 3D names are losing value every day.  I sold when it was flying because now it’s falling.

5. All but the best dot co domains: I like dot co.  I really do. I think it is fantastic for a brand or company to use.  As an investment?  You better have the BEST names and category killers because the rest are going to be worth less than renewal.  If I am starting a new brand I would feel very comfortable using dot co.  If I was sitting on a giant portfolio of dot co I wouldn’t.  Dot co is an advertiser but it is my job to be honest.  Dot co was meant to be in the hands of the people that will actually use the domain.  The Namejet auction of dot cos will say a lot.  I think it will say that the reason dot co will succeed is because it is a name that is being used by businesses and Internet users, and not because it has a good return on investment.  Dot co is flying but the investments are falling but falling gracefully.

Share This

About the author

Outsmarting the Dumb, Outworking the Smart

View all articles by ShaneCultra

17 comments

  1. JS

    Good post there Shane. A few words :

    Groupon has been ripped by Rocky@techcrunch, their biz model has so little transparency it’s been compared to the subprime business.

    IT i think is a harbinger of change. I’d say it’s gliding.

    Cohen i have no clue

    3d = too much hype, same as cloud names, if you’re buying now you’re likely not gonna get a good deal. If you’re regging now it’s likely a crap name.

    .co -> Mann is selling (arguably as much as he can before the first renewal wave) that should give everyone a strong hint as to what to do with dot cos

  2. Louise

    That was nervy, what you said about Internet Traffic being a “dead cat bounce.” I like nervy. It’s entertaining! 😀

    The interest in future trend inspired me – now I’m happy to have lots to blog about Dual Screen Phones – a new one gets announced every week!

    Plus I got in early on some sublime MultiScreen dot coms:

    MultiScreenServices
    MultiScreenDelivery , Solutions, App, Ad

    It’s exciting times for newbies who want to own nice dot coms!


    1. Post author
      ShaneCultra

      Louse ,

      Internet Traffic is better than anyone out there. I am just saying that the people are going to experience a nice jump in revenue but IMO will slowly start to decrease as time goes by. That’s the model’s fault. Not IT’s. Being the best parking company is like being world champions in the WNBA. It’s nice but the future is not great.

  3. Mike

    It should be fun to see if this post ruffles some feathers.

    Agree with you that 3D TV is a fad that has run its course. However, 3D printing hasn’t even begun yet in comparison. But the domains that will do the best long term won’t include “3D” – just printing or printer or print as that’s what the “normals” will call it.

  4. Michael Evan

    I agree with you in all statements except InternetTraffic, because I don’t park any of my domains.
    If I am buying the domain I have an idea for development not just to make cents in parking.
    Even crappy sites with less than 100 articles on it will cover yearly expenses and will bring some profit

    I love .co domain names, because I can hand register some low end category killer domains and make $xxx/month without huge money and time investment.

  5. Em

    I don’t think any auction will say anything about .co. There will people saying that the big Sedo auction was a make or break. Just wasn’t true. It’s the daily sales that show more than anything. It is a slow growth venture. Nothing can be divined for at least a year or two. Personally, I’ve had a few sales to end-users. Albeit, I have some top tier keywords, but I have seen a lot worse names go for a lot more than what I sold mine for.

    I think it’s pretty pre-mature to make a sweeping statement about .co. It hasn’t been out for even a year yet. It has been on a slow steady rise for the last 11 months. Suddenly people are saying it’s dropping? Well, if you are a speculator (and may God help you), then perhaps it is dropping. If you are an investor, than not. These are two worlds apart.

  6. Em

    BTW, if you really do want to base anything on the Namejet auction, let’s call .co an overwhelming success. There are bids on around 30 of those names and those names are not great ones by any stretch. No product names, generics, LLL, NNN, Spanish or Geo. Just concept words and some awkward grammatics. I am more a .com and .de guy, but I see a lot of value in .co. Their timing has been perfect and clearly they understand that the domain game is about branding and public recognition.

  7. RH

    @Tomekl I agree Epik would be on that list way before Internet Traffic. But maybe they have stopped falling already and are on the ground.

    @Shane would love to hear why you would want to build a brand on .co, would you not worry about it helping the .com ? I am not anti .co just wondered why you would start a brand.

    Great Post.

  8. Louise

    Wow! Comparing Internet Traffic to WNBA is quite an accolade! Womens’ basketball has only increased in my lifetime. They didn’t have anything like the WNBA when I was growing up! I guess the undefeated Olympic win in 1996 propelled that institution.

    Epik is doing okay by me. It’s been up and down. My Jacket-Dresses.com is #15 on Google, generating about $50.00/month. The new template with articles on the landingpage may be the missing key to make product portals more sticky.

  9. Nadia

    The Namejet auction has a horrible selection of names, whcih were probably available weeks after gen availability.

    There are 5 active .CO auctions on Sedo right now, one of which is Mike Mann’s Hosting.co, and also Zum.co (at $1000) and Audiobook (at $130).

  10. Louise

    Your post is great, and I keep coming back. Now I noticed the #3 about WannaDevelop. If you have sites developed by them, you have grounds to say something. Otherwise, maybe you want to delete that entry.


    1. Post author
      ShaneCultra

      Louise,

      I really appreciate you coming here and voicing your opinion. No I don’t have any sites parked with them. Mike is an incredibly smart person and he will certainly find the next way to make money, I have no doubt. I am merely stating an opinion and an observation. If something is making good money or has the ability to make money, why would you sell it for a few hundred dollars? I know several people who have low page number sites that do well. It’s not saying that they can’t make money. But if they are making $50 a month why would you sell it for under $1000?

  11. Louise

    @ Shane, *Hugs*
    This is why: some domains catch; some don’t in the mini site venue. Offering to develop in the $99.00 – $199.00 realm may allow some investors to see the potential in their domains.

    But it all comes down to original content, right? Even Noomle sites will rank if you add fresh content . . .

Comments are closed.